Friday, January 1, 2010

2010 Predictions

Putting on my guessing cap for 2010:
  • Apple's Jesus Tablet, as it's called at Businessweek. I'm a Jobs fanboi, but the hype for an unannounced, unspec'd product is reaching absurd proportions. It's amazing to me that not one photo of this has been leaked, even with product launch less than a month away. I am skeptical, particularly of the claims that it will revolutionize everything. Why? The mobile bandwidth issue. Networks are already clogged just from the iPhones. (At least that's what they tell us.) These tablets will inherently use much more bandwidth, slowing everything down further. I'm not saying the tablet concept is doomed or won't be a huge success, I am just saying that I don't think its time has come yet.

    Apple's very good at misdirecting the chattering crowd. Example: Until the day of the iPhone's official launch, the "experts" were certain that it would have a scroll wheel. The fanbois completely missed the haptic interface. Maybe the big event in San Francisco next month is Jobs making his last hurrah and announcing that the Beatles catalogue will finally be available on iTunes?

  • The mobile platform war will end 2010: 1) Apple 2) Android 3) Symbian 4) RIM. Palm will be dead; Windows Mobile 7.0 will go nowhere. This is a repeat of the early 1980s PC OS wars, and Apple and Google will be the winners. Too bad, Microsoft. You lose.

  • PC wars: Who cares. They are all low-margin generic boxes made in China. People will replace their machines as needed, but many of these people will decide to pay the Apple premium or decide upon a low-cost Acer notebook or netbook with a free open source OS. In other words, what's happened so far this year will continue next year. Desktop PCs are so 1998.

  • Shoeshine boy says: "Buy gold!" It will end the year below $800. The gold bugs on Mish and Calculated Risk will grow increasingly shrill and conspiratorial.

  • Oil: Bubblelicious once again! Below $40 by December 2010.

  • Unemployment: Trending between 8-9% nationwide. Unemployment continues in the double-digit range in CA, MI, FL, NV, IL and AZ.

  • Dubai: The Great Collapse continues. The dreams of an Arab Paris (it used to be Beirut) on the Saudi peninsula will be dashed when it's learned that even though Dubai real estate is marked 90% off, much of it is uninhabitable.

  • Melonhead and the Evil Dwarf: Melonhead stays in power and continues to rant about smelling sulfur while the Venezuelan economy collapses around him. The Evil Dwarf is booted out in a non-violent movement after the mullah's cave in to pressure. The Iranian nuke program will continue, but with less vitriol from Tehran leaders.

  • George Bush: He still won't be living on that supposed Bolivian ranch.

  • Barack Obama: Poll numbers improve along with the economy throughout 2010.

  • Texas Governor's Race: Former Houston mayor Bill White will be the Democrat nominee and wins the general vote. Long-range prediction: Joe Biden will announce he is resigning at the end of the first term and Obama will chose White as his running mate.

  • US House: Republicans regain control.

  • US Senate: Democrats retain control.

  • Rising anger over the "two America's": Those who have government jobs and those who don't.

  • Bankrupt: Sears, Palm, Landry's, more California municipalities.

  • Washed-up country acts have Branson to fall back on when they get old and don't want to live on the road. Washed-up rock acts need their Branson. In 2010, Prince, Led Zepplin and The Who will sign on as house acts for major Las Vegas casinos. (I predicted this two years ago and failed. It will happen! heh.)

7 comments:

Casey Serin: Homosexual Con Artist said...

No 2010 predictions about my namesake, for tradition's sake?

In the grand scheme of things, you were incorrect about his getting a job. You know he quit his car-parking job before the year ended. :-)

Anyway, my own Serin prognostications for 2010:

1) Serin family loses their house to foreclosure, HELOC'd to the hilt, has to either move in with relatives or severely downgrade their housing, now as renters. Permanently. Just like their son, the parents will ignore their debts and look for new credit lines.

2) Casey Serin remains unemployed for at least 80% of the year.

3) Casey cycles back to manic psychosis in mid-Summer 2010. Returns to the Internet with another absurd scheme. Parents, still in denial, still won't get him any treatment.

4) At least one civil or criminal sanction is brought against Casey, either for outstanding debts or mortgage fraud.

5) Casey stays in the closet, still too frightened to come out once and for all.

Lou Minatti said...

I promised I wouldn't post about Buttnugget unless something major comes up and I will stick to that promise.

NoVa Sideliner said...

But it won't bother the rest of us if other people post. (Since we don't all have time to scour the various websites for the details and rumours on Snowflake...)

Aslak said...

I'm pretty sure the oil prices will stay where they are - the cold and instability in the ME will keep prices high. Besides, there's also this:
http://www.thenational.ae/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20100102/BUSINESS/701029938/1058&template=columnists

Brad S said...

Here's some of my silly 2010 predictions, Lou:

1. TX Governor's Race-Have to give the nod to Rick Perry. Be honest, Texans: Did you ever think your longest-serving Governor would be someone like Goodhair? Besides, the guy has political survival skills like that of a cockroach.

2. The GOP will not take back the House, nor the Senate. The Dems will gloat that the GOP couldn't do it. The Dems will then look at the 2012 political calendar and shut their traps in a big hurry.

3. Verizon Wireless will get the iPhone. And expose ATT for the lack of investment in their network.

4. Casey Serin will have had 4 jobs by the end of the year.

5. Everyday laptops with less than 500GB storage will be priced @BestBuy for $150 or less. The Netbooks will only go down to the $200-$250 range, thus demonstrating the greater value placed on ease of mobility and carry.

6. The average Las Vegas homebuyer will be over 60 years of age. In addition, those 60+ year-old Baby Boomers will see their GenX children and THEIR families move to Vegas and Phoenix with them, thus putting paid to the supposed "trend" of moving back to farm plots in MO and KS.

Anonymous said...

Unemployment will be closer to 11% than 10%. Perry will win for better or worse he just looks better than Kay (sorry Kay). People start to wake up on the fiscal abuse going on in DC, Cal, NY, etc. but due to prior voting are unable to prevent train wreck...stagflation for a generation..."Welcome back Carter".

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